The ACS Blog
We think extrapolation is self-evidently defensible, and it is merely on-the-surface defensible. It falls apart when things get interesting, which is precisely when we need help the most… and precisely when we are most vulnerable to bad advice.
Although this post seems superficially about stock-market investments, it really isn’t. It applies equally to virtually any competitive-strategy decision.
How would you know if a company is worth investing in? How would you know if a business is likely to be profitable and long-lived? Make a list of the characteristics that you believe would separate good businesses from bad…
You have a bathtub in your house. It’s filling up with water. How many ways can you imagine to stop it from overflowing?
Ceteris paribus isn’t easy. It’s the gold standard we use in double-blind clinical trials of drugs and medical treatments, but the business equivalent of clinical trials is difficult at best.
There may be wisdom in crowds and safety in numbers, but there’s not much inspiration in a herd or thought in groupthink.
We don’t purposely create anchors any more than we purposely cause any kind of trouble for ourselves. Anchors are common and unconscious because they come from being human. So, short of renouncing our humanity, how can we reduce their prevalence?
One number stands out even in that exalted company. It is a number that we fear and venerate. It is a number that is fluid and then becomes stone. It is a number that defines the limits of what’s possible. That number is the budget.
The best insights often come from surprises, and the best surprises often come from simulations. Here we’ll talk about surprises in both business and crisis simulations, and actionable insights.
Steven Shore and Barry Prevor aren’t so different from you and me. They showed guts and commitment, and they succeeded for a long time, and they may continue to succeed. And they, like us, are vulnerable. The question is, vulnerable to what?