Innovative, powerful, proven approaches to business war games, strategy simulation, and strategic thinking

Advice, Gullibility, and Predictions

What we really want is to find a theory (in the sense of a model or system, not in the sense of an idea) that repeatedly, not anecdotally, predicts future events well. That’s how it works in science. I’m not saying it’s easy. I am saying it’s possible and it doesn’t have to be perfect.