The Track-Record Fallacy

The Track-Record Fallacy

By Mark Chussil

There’s a reason why financial-disclosure statements say past performance does not guarantee future results.

How do we know when someone is skillful at competing? Reflexively, unconsciously, and inevitably we turn to the person’s track record. A person with a string of competitive suc­cesses is more likely to be competitively skillful, we figure, than someone with a string of com­petitive failures.

The thing is, it’s hard to tell the difference between luck and skill…

Please see the full text of this essay on

Mark Chussil, Founder and CEO of Advanced Competitive Strategies, is also a Co-founder of

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