Champions and Lotteries

We (correctly) say that betting on a champion is a good strategy even though the strategy occasionally fails, and that betting on a lottery is a bad strategy even though it occasionally succeeds. How can we tell the difference between a champion and a lottery when it comes to something as fuzzy and complex as competitive strategy? Based on the robust population of management gurus, the profusion of transformative processes with cool acronyms, and the continued existence of disappointing results, it’s apparently not so simple.