2010

Same-store sales rose 14.3% when using RFID tags on clothes. Is there a first-tagger advantage, and is it worth having? Let’s think it through.

Apparently we believe that bad action is better than no action at all. If we didn’t believe that, we the people wouldn’t demand that politicians and businesspeople always take action when things look bad.

People whisper to horses, dogs, and (according to TV) ghosts. Why not models? The model whisperer — perhaps you, savvy strategist — gently, wisely guides models into shape and helps them achieve fulfillment as oracles of your business’ future. (#3 in a series)

The challenge in developing an effective strategy begins long before we decide what actions to take and how to execute them. The challenge begins when we decide what model to use. By selecting a model we frame the way we see and evaluate our strategy options. (#2 in a series)

We can classify models chemically: those based on carbon and those based on silicon. The former, mental models, operate inside our heads. The latter, computer-based models, operate inside computers. They behave differently. (#1 in a series)

Strategists commonly analyze best-case, worst-case, and most-likely scenarios before making a significant strategy decision. That covers about 0.000007618% of the possibilities. I’m not making up that number.

“Where is the evidence that a clear strategy makes a company more likely to succeed?” That brave question is stunningly difficult to answer. We’ll try anyway, and end up with a bumper sticker for professional strategists.

The presence of numbers does not guarantee insight, knowledge, or inspiration. On the other hand, the absence of numbers limits us to anecdotes, impressions, and hypotheses. So, we want numbers, and we want them not to drive us crazy.

If an unexpected threat (or opportunity) can come out of left field, it is good to look in that direction before committing to a new strategy or the status quo. What investors and Congress have to say about that.

Our first surprise suggests that we don’t ask questions that might help us predict competitors. Our second surprise suggests that our competitors may not be so easy to predict, unless the slate isn’t clean, jobs aren’t safe, issues aren’t clear, and tradition is binding.