January, 2009

People talk of business models with certain words and meanings in the USA. People may use the same words with different meanings in France, Malaysia, Brazil, and South Africa. We may translate the words but we may not understand each other, with real consequences.

We know pretty well how to assess the financial impact of a product or service that purports to reduce costs. What about products or services that purport to improve the quality of our decisions? And how can we avoid the traps of streaks and slumps?

What we really want is to find a theory (in the sense of a model or system, not in the sense of an idea) that repeatedly, not anecdotally, predicts future events well. That’s how it works in science. I’m not saying it’s easy. I am saying it’s possible and it doesn’t have to be perfect.